Preliminary LEAP-Based Scenario Analysis of Electricity Demand and Renewable Energy Development in South Sulawesi

Abstract

South Sulawesi possesses abundant renewable energy potential, particularly from hydro, wind, solar, and biomass resources. However, rapid population growth and increasing energy consumption across sectors create challenges in ensuring sustainable energy supply and planning. This study aims to project the mid-term renewable energy supply and demand in South Sulawesi using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. By simulating various scenarios—including the business-as-usual (BAU) and renewable policy intervention scenarios—this research analyzes the region’s future energy trajectory up to 2035. The findings reveal that South Sulawesi’s average population growth of 1.028% (approximately 142,000 people per year) and electricity demand growth of 7.94% annually significantly increase regional energy needs. Without intervention, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix, but policy-driven scenarios demonstrate that renewable energy contributions could exceed 45% of the total supply. The study provides valuable insights for regional energy planning and supports policy formulation toward achieving a sustainable, low-carbon energy system in South Sulawesi.